You do not have to be a political guru to discern that the move to amend the Constitution will lead to severe conflicts and possible violence because the supporters and detractors will not budge from their trenches.
The opponents insist that the charter should be left intact. The opposition Democrat Party has been trying to use all tricks inside Parliament to delay the amendment bills. It has cited all sorts of legal technicalities to rock the boat.
For example, it was opposed to the chairing of the joint meeting of MPs and senators by Senate Speaker Nikom Waiyaratphanich on grounds that he lacked objectivity because he had sponsored two of the three charter-change bills. However, Nikom insisted on taking his turn to chair the meetings, prompting the Democrats to boycott the meeting chaired by him.
It came as no surprise that the three bills sailed through their first readings. But the Democrats again resorted to a legal technicality to try to delay the bills' deliberation by claiming that the time frame for vetting the three bills was not properly set. The Democrats said the meeting lacked a quorum and was adjourned before the vetting time frame was fixed.
The Democrats refused to work with the three vetting panels, prompting Parliament President Somsak Kiartsuranon to call another joint meeting to vote on the time frame. The Democrats' proposal for 60 days was rejected when the ruling coalition and some sympathetic senators voted to reaffirm the 15-day time frame. The coalition also ridiculed the Democrats for always losing parliamentary votes.
Because the Democrats would never win in Parliament, the opponents of charter change turned to seeking help from the Constitutional Court. A senator petitioned the court to consider the amendments, and the court took up the case for review immediately.
But the move raised the question of whether the court was encroaching on the powers of the legislative branch.
This prompted the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its academic and grass-roots supporters to urge the lawmakers favouring charter change to reject the Constitutional Court's authority over the review of amendments. They want the MPs and senators to go on revising the charter even if the court judges that the amendments are unconstitutional.
Pheu Thai has also launched an impeachment drive against the Constitutional Court justices by submitting a complaint to the National Anti-Corruption Commission, while an academic close to Pheu Thai filed a complaint with Crime Suppression police, accusing the justices of violating the law. So the proponents of charter change have also adopted the tactic of discrediting the judges.
As if the pressure on the Constitutional Court had not mounted enough, a group of red-shirt protesters has threatened to rally in front of the courthouse. This means that the day the court delivers its ruling, a crowd of red shirts will be there to pressure it. A serious problem might result if the ruling goes against the red-shirt masses. And red-shirt leader Natthawut Saikua has not prohibited his followers from acting up, but has encouraged them to demonstrate their feelings.
The moves outside Parliament's chambers have infuriated the backers of charter amendments as they feel that they are being pushed into a corner.
It seems that a political storm is building up. The House of Representatives voted to move an amnesty bill to the top of the agenda for deliberation in the next session. Worse still, Pheu Thai has said it will go on deliberating pending reconciliation bills that seek to whitewash former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
The opposition is losing patience because of pressure escalating on its side without a chance to vent its differences. It knows that its side has no chance of prevailing at Parliament.
So the proponents of the current charter will definitely rally their masses to oppose what the government is doing and the government will definitely rally its supporters to confront them.
Thailand could be heading inexorably to the brink of political violence again.
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Source: http://www.news.thethailandlinks.com/2013/04/25/charter-change-conflict-getting-dangerous/
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